Somalia Update
By Bashir Goth
After the ouster of the Union of Islamic Courts by Ethiopian forces, the Somali Transitional Government, TFG, seems to be in control of the situation. It acted quickly to impose martial law, started collecting weapons and formed a governing body to supervise the capital's return to normalcy. The most significant victory, however, was the arrival of the TFG President Abdillahi Yusuf in Mogadishu for the first time since his election two years ago and his successful meetings with his predecessors Abdilqasim Salat Hassan, Ali Mahdi Mohammed and other prominent leaders.

Even the TFG Parliament has for the first time exercised its legislative powers by passing martial laws and sacking its lone wolf Speaker Sharif Hassan who kowtowed with the Union of Islamic Courts and opposed the Ethiopian intervention.

With the exception of some isolated incidents, no major hostile acts or insurgency activities against the Ethiopian forces have taken place. The situation, however, may take a different turn if the Ethiopians remain longer than necessary. Only a quick deployment of the African peace keeping forces and the withdrawal of the Ethiopian army will guarantee the consolidation of the TFG gains.

The TFG also needs to refrain from making any inflammatory statements against the people of Somaliland who thronged to the streets on Tuesday, January 16 th, in one of the largest demonstration in the country, protesting against the TFG President's statement in which he rebuffed the independence of Somaliland. It also seems the international community is more determined this time not to let Somalia slip back into lawlessness.READ MORE in Washington Post

Somaliland Will Be Recognized
By Bashir Goth
Somalia/UAE - Contrary to what pundits say about an Iraq scenario tearing up Somalia, I believe the quick withdrawal of the Ethiopian forces from Somalia and the speedy deployment of African peacekeeping forces with international financial backing will bring peace and stability to Somalia under a strong central government for the first time in 16 years.

Everything will of course depend on how quickly the international community moves to extend a Marshall Plan to rebuild the country's government institutions, particularly the armed forces, as well as creating jobs for the people.

The establishment of a peaceful and stable government in Southern Somalia will create a favorable political atmosphere for Somaliland. A former British Protectorate, Somaliland annulled its union with Somalia after the collapse of the central government in 1991. Since then it has enjoyed peace and stability under an elected presidency, bichameral parliament, independent judicial system and a vigorous free press. It has also a functioning currency, armed forces and police forces and four universities.

Often described as The Little Country That Could, Somaliland has excellent bilateral ties with neighboring states, particularly Ethiopia and Kenya. It has established special friendship with South Africa, Tanzania, Senegal and Nigeria, UK and Germany, however recognition has so far eluded it due to Arab countries' staunch rejection of the dismemberment of an Arab League member state.

However, with its brilliant record in building government institutions and maintaining peace and stability with a unique blend of traditional conflict resolving methods and modern democracy, Somaliland has won international admiration as Africa's Best Kept Secret.

The main obstacle for Somaliland was to find a negotiating partner with Somalia. Now, with the optimism of the South coming under one recognized authority for the first time, the African Union will have no reason to revert to its ostrich tactics anymore. They will be duty-bound to force the Southern government to sit with Somaliland and work out a permanent solution on Somaliland people's demand for sovereignty. And given the unwavering wish of Somaliland people for their sovereignty under the internationally recognized boundaries of 1960, the only possible outcome of any such talks will be the official secession and recognition of Somaliland. Another unexpected outcome of Ethiopia's close ties with both the TFG and independent Somaliland could be the founding of a Horn of African Economic and Monetary Union in which Djiobuti, Eritrea, and Kenya could eventually join. READ MORE in Washington Post.

Time for dhikr and music
By Bashir Goth
Phew! Good riddance! The nightmare is over. Yes, I mean the Union of Islamic Courts, UIC. They had their day under the sun and they blew it. They had the support of all Somali people when they stormed to power, routed the notorious warlords, restored peace in Mogadishu, opened the airports and seaports, started addressing looted property issues and began looking like a wise authority.

But instead of capitalizing on the people’s genuine support and willingness to give in and give up everything, they had become power lusty, belligerent and fatwa-crazy. Instead of building bridges with the community, improving services, opening hospitals, winning the trust of international organizations and NGO’s to help them with projects to generate employment, they burned all bridges. They alienated the youth by banning all types of entertainment, segregated women and deprived tens of thousands of families from their only livelihood by banning Khat without bringing an alternative source of income. They even embittered traditional Islamic scholars with their characteristic Wahhabi style of self-righteousness and condescending attitude to mainstream Islam.

Not only did they become more warlords than the ones they had defeated, but they emblazoned their belligerency with Islam and brandished the sword of Jihad, thus projecting themselves in the model of Taliban and regurgitating the tired jihadist rhetoric of Al Qaeda. They mistook their easy ride to power for being an unstoppable revolution and started stirring instability in the peaceful Republic of Somaliland by branding the leadership of that democratic country as an infidel and threatening to bring Somaliland under their Wahhabi cloak. READ MORE in Awdalnews, The Medialine, Khaleej Times,Sufijourneys,waridaad and Washington Post.

Middle East's Misery Poetry
By Bashir Goth
Looking at the situation of the Middle East; from Palestine, Lebanon to Iraq; and further a field from Sudan's Darfur to Somalia and Afghanistan, the only wisdom that rushes to my memory is the classic children's nursery rhyme:

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall.
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall.
All the king's horses and the king's men
Couldn't put Humpty together again.


It is however by delving into the Arab literary wisdom that one stumbles on the prophetic manner in which Arab and Muslim poets and philosophers through history have predicted the present situation with precision. One feels as if time has been frozen. I just let these wise men speak: READ MORE in Washington Post

Somalia Islamists Should Be Stopped
By Bashir Goth
Somalia for Somalis! Let them run their country as they please. Easy words to say but difficult to accept when it means beheading people for not praying five times a day, chopping hands of those who steal to stay alive in a country where mere survival is a lifelong ambition. Difficult to accept when women are shrouding and denied to breathe fresh air or go about their daily business to feed their children. Difficult to accept when the country's musical heritage is expunged as Satan's work, the cinema is banned and tha watching of world sports is forbidden, thus depriving the youth of the only source of cultural interaction they have with the outside world. Read More at Washington Post,

The Apocalyptic Whistle
By Bashir Goth
Washington Post/Postglobal--Ruth Shanor, an octogenarian American friend of mine who observes the world from her little home in Cowpens, South Carolina, and reads my Postglobal pieces, wrote to me after learning about the release of the Baker-Hamilton report on Iraq:

"Dear Bashir, I have a whistling tea kettle. When I want a cup of tea I put the kettle on the back burner of the stove. I continue with other chores in the kitchen. Usually I completely forget that the temperature is rising in the tea kettle and the water is on the verge of breaking into a full boil. When the silence is finally blasted by an ear-splitting, shrill whistle, it scares me to death. There is no way to ignore the alarm. A call to action! Looks like wiser heads in America are finally screaming that the kettle is about to explode. Your part of the world keeps throwing sticks on the fire also, doesn't it? When will we have that cup of tea?"

An apt analysis indeed. But instead of giving us the recipe for preparing the tea, the Baker-Hamilton report advises the Bush Administration to flee the explosion. The recommendation of engaging Iran and Syria to help solve the Iraqi debacle seems a pragmatic, long-overdue measure. However, looking at the overall defeatist tone of the report, one may conclude that America now turns to Iran and Syria to serve as a lifeboat for the Bush administration. It will then pass along the ticking bomb to Iran and Syria, who it now accuses of fueling the fire. It is their turn to burn.
Read more at Washington Post/Postglobal.

Islamism Rode Democracy's Wave
By Bashir Goth
Somalia/UAE - The Muslim world heeded Washington's call for democratic change, and ushered Islamists in. This may be leaving a bitter taste in Bush's mouth.

It all started with Egypt where the Muslim Brotherhood won a record number of seats in the Egyptian parliament, followed by the landslide victory of Hamas in the first Palestinian free and fair elections.

The surprise rise of the Iranian firebrand president Ahmedinajad also came as another blow to any of Washington's hopes of having a reasonable counterpart to talk to in Tehran. With Islamic parties taking control of the democratically elected parliaments of America's traditional friends in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain, the Bush administration must have experienced change in Arabia's shifting sands long before the democrats won the latest American elections. MORE Washington Post